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时间:2011-5-6 17:44:07 信息来源:本站原创 点击:

"Stable foreign trade policy to be implemented

China import and export situation improved slightly in April this year, exports in the us and European demand to improve under the drive of rebound, imported from march negative double-digit growth turned positive growth. Looking to the future, however, in economic leading indicators in overseas, and the fair poor performance, carefully makes the export judgment about the future, and the China banking regulatory commission will also be restricted to the promotion of iron ore trade credit deposit of iron ore imports in the future. Future foreign trade situation is still facing greater uncertainty, we need to promptly implement support and steady growth of foreign trade policies and measures to prevent the stall in the economic downturn. Specific terms, the general administration of customs, according to data by the dollars, China's exports rose 0.9% from April, imports rose 0.8% year-on-year, in March and 6.6% and 11.3% respectively compared to the import and export, import and export are improved than 3 month. In addition, April trade surplus also widened, from $7.7 billion in March to $18.5 billion. Exports, the effect of high base effect is weakened gradually, the decline in exports to Hong Kong has narrowed. In Hong Kong under exports fell 31.3% in April, and the value is in March to 43.6%. Considering was introduced last may, the state administration of foreign exchange to crack down on false trade "20", is expected soon, caused by a false trade export high base effect will gradually disappear, exports is expected to return to the real data. Don't look at the land, April exports modest improvement is mainly European and American economies demand picks up, worrying exports to emerging economies. In April, China's exports to the eu grew by 15.1% year on year, a 12% growth in exports to the United States, rose 13.5%, exports to South Korea on March the figures were 8.8%, 1.2% and 9.6%, respectively. , by contrast, the sharp drop in exports of Japan, from march year-on-year growth of 11% down to 2.6% in April. For the association of south-east Asian nations (asean), Brazil, South Africa and Russia exports also appeared a certain degree of down, according to emerging economies to crack down on unrest on China's import demand. From products, mainly labor-intensive products export slowed in April, including furniture, travel supplies, clothing exports year-on-year growth of 5.1%, 0.8% respectively, 4.5%, respectively than march fell by 4.6, 0.5, 7.8%. High-tech exports decline narrowed somewhat, automatic data processing equipment products from march - back up to 10.2% - 10.2%, integrated circuit from march - back up to 69.5% - 69.5%. Especially handheld wireless telephone exports dropped sharply, from march year-on-year growth slowed from 22.9% to 1%. April imports, imports rebounded in fact is a result of the combined action of rise price falls. The most notable is iron ore, and its imports grew by 20.7% year on year in April, but the unit price fell 11.2% year-on-year. From the point of the past few months, maintained the strong trend of import iron ore, but considering the high domestic inventories, excess capacity and weak industrial reality, the author thinks that there are a large number of companies by increasing imports of iron ore for trade financing behavior. Accordingly, due to the CBRC issued at the end of April require commercial Banks to improve credit deposit proportion, the trade financing behavior will be must contain, in the future iron ore imports have dropped. At the same time, the export outlook is more uncertain. Despite the high base effect is expected to disappear, but the strong demand in Europe and America can continue, will face the test. Especially in the United States, the federal reserve chairman yellen said in congressional hearings, even if the outlook for the us economy to improve, the job market is far from satisfactory, there are risks, the real estate market to boost the U.S. economy turns a lot of big extent China's exports is a question. Unrest in emerging market countries still more big concern this part the author for the future exports. April from domestic data, official and HSBC PMI new export orders index decline, Canton fair is not very ideal. Data show that the just concluded on the 115th Canton fair, the number of overseas buyers, fell 0.81%, fell 7.23%; Total export volume fell 2.01% (excluding currency fluctuations), fell 12.64% year on year. It is the coldest in recent five years in the Canton fair. If the Canton fair as a barometer of future exports, in the short term, export seems it is difficult to see improvement. , of course, a modest decline in the value of the renminbi and the recent support of the state council foreign trade policy, especially the optimization of the structure of foreign trade, improve the level of trade facilitation, improve the financing service, speed up progress of export tax rebates and ensure timely tax rebates, encourage to carry out the brand, technology and production line of mergers and acquisitions, is to support the export of positive factors, the need to implement. Considering the weak situation of foreign trade and investment is declining, the author believes that the current Chinese economy worse than expected, more steady growth policies needed, especially timely drop quasi dual risk is necessary to prevent economic and financial, sooner rather than later.